Summer Rain pattern ending!

[Waumbek]

I sure hope this pattern is ending.

I'm travelling from Nova Scotia to do some hiking in the Northern Whites starting tomorrow.

Hope I see some of ya while I'm down there.

Bienvenue! Matt's prediction is holding good this morning--beautiful bright sun, big puffy clouds (no thunderheads), cool breeze, low humidity, a couple of rogue maples already showing color, and bears beginning to show up in my yard to eat ripe black elderberries. It doesn't get better than this in August.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

Call me stubborn, but I want to have views for my remaining peaks. Once the list is done, I'll mind less hiking in sub-optimal conditions. I also have a few to revisit with better weather. Plus my wife and kids who plan to join me for #48 don't have $100 rain suits (no lectures please.)

Tim

 

[griffin]

It's one thing to know rain is (as always) a possibility. It's another to know it's a near certainty.

Some of us prefer the former.

I don't mind hiking in the rain now and then, but it gets old after awhile. I'll be very happy to see the back of these insane deluges.

As will the bridge-repair crews, I suspect.

 

[mookie]

"Plus my wife and kids who plan to join me for #48 don't have $100 rain suits "

what is #48 for you?

rain suits are over rated.

 

[griffin]

rain suits are over rated.

So are wet, grumpy kids and spouses

 

[mookie]

haha

"So are wet, grumpy kids "

glad i aint got none of them

 

[giggy]

yea - I hate rain as much as the next dude - but come on 30% - dude - thats a good day up in them thar hills.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

yea - I hate rain as much as the next dude - but come on 30% - dude - thats a good day up in them thar hills.

You have your bar. I have mine. (Pun intended)

I am trying to learn the difference between reality and the forecast here. It's not an unreasonable question. The forecast surrounding Sunday is far less rosy than Mattl's prediction. I was seeking his opinion on it, mainly as a learning experience. The forecast has at least a 30% chance, plus with water levels being what they are, and having to cross the Little River, there is reasonable cause for inquiry.

I'm very good at reading the marine forecast and interpreting the subtleties and how the boat runs and the fish bite. I'm not there yet on mountain weather.

Tim

p.s. #48 will be Jackson

 

[Quietman]

Hate to burst anyone's bubble but a line of T-storms has just entered central VT and is on its way!

Northeast Radar

 

[mookie]

yup

yup,
the skies just got black here. should be a fun commute home on my bike
im used to riding home in the rain now....

 

[bikehikeskifish]

Stretching from Buffalo to Montreal qualifies as bit more than "a scattered storm develops"

My bike commute home looks to be safe -- won't be here by then. Matt will stop it at the CT River

Tim

 

[Mattl]

OK..what I said was the upper level low, very wet patter is over, not the normal summer thing. The mountains can create small pop up storms during most of the summer somewhere, but widespead should be over for some time. No more, 5 inches in 2 hours in Ashland and washing away roads for now. Now we can enjoy the, its beautiful outside, I will just keep an eye out for a small pop up cell that might develop. Impossible to predict those. Its much much better this week, then the last 2 months -Mattl

 

[sapblatt]

p.s. #48 will be Jackson

FWIW - my 48th was on Jackson and it was a monsoon!

I hiked a lot more in the rain pre-48 - as I was on a timetable...since then, I have been a little pickier about the weather. Truth is, with family commitments etc, - I have to hike when I can.

Getting soaked after I have been hiking for awhile is hardly noticeable - generally I am a mud and sweat caked mess by then and it does not matter - I will say, it trully s*cks to start a hike by leaving your warm dry vehicle and stepping out into a downpour - once or twice was enough for me on that!

Mountains create a lot of their own weather - the higher you go the harder it is to predict - I assume this is why the higher summits forecast is always so shaky, and not predicted much more than 36 hours out...

 

[marty]

I have been on hikes where the NOAA or MWO Observatory forecast that morning said "mostly sunny with a 10% chance of precip", yet it rained or snowed like crazy. Most of the time the forecasts are accurate, but one should never assume them to be anything close to perfect.

 

[MichaelJ]

Let's not forget that there's a big difference between mountain weather and what we experience at our homes throughout New England. While up hiking we will always run a higher risk of variable weather, regardless of the overall conditions.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

Let's not forget that there's a big difference between mountain weather and what we experience at our homes throughout New England. While up hiking we will always run a higher risk of variable weather, regardless of the overall conditions.

All the more reason to start out with a better-looking day on paper, right? That's all I'm trying to do. I certainly don't expect more than that. And, if the forecast holds, Sunday looks nearly perfect. I always get concerned about plans when there is ONE day out of four or five that looks nice.

Tim

 

[Puck]

Face it Tim, You just might have a mountain or two that will never have nice weather for you. These will be your jinks mountains. I am told there are wonderfull views from the Hancocks. These people are lying to me. Everytime I have been up there I was inside a rain cloud.

Give your local weatherman a hug.

 

[SLB]

Thanks Mattl ! What would we do without you? Are you a weather forecaster in real life?

 

[rocket21]

Most of the time the forecasts are accurate, but one should never assume them to be anything close to perfect.

I have to say that since March, they have been very inaccurate up here. I made that statement to a meteorologist friend of my today and he didn't argue it at all. The good news is that he mirrored some of the statements mentioned in here, that things should stablize in coming days (he said that the more stable weather is *slowly* moving in for the weekend).

Today in the Lakes Region was beautiful, by the way. Clouds moving in now, but I think there's a chance we may have the first precip-free day here this month! Only 5 hours left!

 

[NewHampshire]

FWIW - my 48th was on Jackson and it was a monsoon!

Mine was on Moosilauke in similar conditions, but I trump ya......one person in our group, who will remain nameless (McRat ) was on the summit when a bolt of lightning struck close enough by to fry his cell phone, camera and GPS unit!

Brian