I'll chime in here having winter hiking, skate skiing, and winter cycling experience. In all three cases, moving at a reasonable pace will make me sweat. I can offer this:
Cycling in winter, for below freezing, I add nitrile gloves under the cycling lobster-style gloves. Effectively these are a VBL, as they keep the insulating gloves dry. Makes riding home (from work, I rode in today) more pleasant because my lobster mitts are not wet to start out. I have accumulated a variety of layers over the years of doing this (next month, if I manage 50 miles, it will be the 216th consecutive month with 50+ miles (18 years)) and can dress for pretty much anything. My cutoff for the 1-hour commute to work is about 10 degrees. Below that, I need to wear ski goggles and a nose mask and there is just too much, uh, discharge ("snot rockets") for this to be practical. My favorite garment here is a neoprene cycling jersey over a single wicking tank top. Heavy tights over shorts, and neoprene booties. For temps in the 40s, I'm good with a LS jersey and a windbreaker plus light booties and leg warmers. Full-length zippers very handy here.
For skate skiing, well, the energy expended skiing uphill is equal to or surpasses cycling (since I use more muscles, my LT is higher skating - around 184 versus 172 on the bike, out of a rough maximum HR of 190). Skating also has less wind chill because I'm not going quite as fast. I will add a vest or windbreaker if a long downhill is coming my way. I tend to wear a mid to heavy weight cycling jersey with a full zip - forgoing the wind layer except possibly a vest if really cold. Been skating for ~15 years, less in the years I was working on my W48...
For hiking in winter, I usually wear a single layer pant (MH softshell), plus the boots+socks described recently elsewhere. I often wear the same wicking tank top, a short sleeve EMS Techwick 100 shirt, and arm warmers. This lets me vent heat by rolling the arm warmers down. Because there is little to no wind on the way up, I can easily soak a bandana (buff, actually) several times where I have to wring it out (learned to twist it between hiking poles to keep my gloves dry.) Often I am not wearing any gloves, or if really cold, the same nitrile gloves under mittens. If wearing light gloves, I plan to go through several pairs. I also have at least one change of shirts that I plan to use, in addition to the reserve one in case I get in trouble. I will, above treeline, wear a hard shell with generous pit zips. Zippers allow me to control the breathability. I have only been doing this for 5 winters (low 100s 4Ks in NH), far less than many of you. Wind chill in the trees is negligible so the shell doesn't come out here unless it is possible not to be in contact with falling snow / snow-laden trees. I very rarely wear what could be considered an insulating area, like a fleece or softshell jacket. I may, above treeline, but often the hard shell stays packed if I do. I have never worn a HRM hiking, so I can only guess at the HR during a long steady climb, but it is probably slightly lower than cycling. I'd like to get some better pants with full side zips, or a least 1/2 length zips for dumping heat.
In all three cases, there is a fine line between "hard enough to stay warm" but not so hard as to sweat, but often that requires going unnaturally or impossibly slow, or wearing so many layers that I have to stop and change them too many times. It's more practical when solo than when in a group.
ETA: for completeness, when I do go ice fishing, which isn't often, perspiration is never a factor
Your experience may differ from mine.
Tim