Ever noticed lots of people on the trail with very small packs and less than appropriate clothing? I used to wonder what their secret was, considering I eschew overnight gear almost all the time and still seem to have a huge pack compared to them.
The difference might be that they only go on a couple of hikes per year and therefore the probability of being in an emergency situation is much lower than someone who goes out 25-50 times a year or more.
This seems like a paradox: the more experienced you are, the more you go out. Therefore the more likely it is that something untoward will eventually happen to you. As a result it behooves you to carry a heavy pack with sufficient gear to deal with the various case scenarios that you read about.
But, the heavier your pack the more likely you are to get injured or become benighted. What happens when you take this to the extreme? Do you stay home and increase your odds of coming down with vascular disease?