DougPaul said:
Sure, accurate data would be nice, but one can still reach useful conclusions with qualtative data and qualtative results. The math is consistent with lower risk practice.
OK, so if you want to use math with limited data, then figure this. Assuming you use the same low risk practices at all times, and your risk of serious accident remains a constant incident / per number of hours in the backcountry, then an individuals chance of accident does not matter if solo or if in a group. Eventually if you spend enough hours in the backcountry, you WILL have a major accident, solo or in a group. The real question all along here has been "is it more dangerous to hike above treeline in winter solo vs in a group". If eventually you will have a major accident then the only question is what happens after the accident. solo = bad news bears, group = chance. So solo is more dangerous. And so far no one has been able to prove it otherwise and I don't see how they could.
A couple other observations about this thread:
I haven't seen any members here tell any other members here not to go solo or not to do what they want to do and are prepared to accept the risks of.
It is easy for the newbies out there to get lulled into the idea that solo hiking in winter is "not that much more dangerous". What they need to realize is that it is not the chance of accident is the what happens after the accident that is important. It is easy to say "I'll stick to popular trails and someone will come across me if I get hurt". The Franconia Ridge can be a zoo, yet I've spent two days there in winter and not seen a single other person. It is not a safe assumption.
Leaving your itinerary with someone is not failsafe. When my friend's buddy died he had left his route with his wife. He didn't come home so she called the police. The police drove by the trailhead and didn't see his car so they called her back and said that he must be on his way home. The reason they didn't see his car is because his car was white and it was snowing out. It delayed the S&R at least 12 hours.
The idea that the experiences of myself, my circle of friends, and other site members is mere anecdotal and that stories in a newspaper about someone you never met is somehow statistical is downright absurd. First hand knowledge is always better than what some newspaper said happened to a handful of people years ago.
Finally, "your determination has outlasted my desire to care" has probably been one of the best quotes in this entire thread.
- darren